Risks of displacement
Secondly, these new measures are susceptible to displacement in the form of trade leakages or shifting of ecological harms. This happens when “non-compliance and its manifestations are […] shifted across time, space, or media”. Examples include diversion of trade to other markets, such as China, if and when producer countries find it too difficult or unattractive to satisfy the requirements of sustainability-oriented markets like that of the EU, for example as regards pesticides. Or, if a regulation solely targets one ecosystem for protection, such as forests, commodity production may simply be expanded to other vulnerable and valuable ecosystems, such as savannahs, grasslands, wetlands, peatlands, or mangroves. In this way, harms to biodiversity are not prevented, but rather displaced to different settings of flora and fauna.
Exclusion of vulnerable stakeholders
Third, there is a risk of such trade measures leading to the exclusion of vulnerable smallholders from participation in high-value commodity supply chains. This can happen when companies are (over)burdened with regulatory compliance and due diligence requirements. As a result, these companies may choose to reduce complications by sourcing from “low-risk” producer countries or better-resourced farmers who can more easily meet new requirements, such as provision of reliable geolocation data. Further, well-intentioned traceability requirements could worsen trends whereby agricultural profits, for example from coffee, are increasingly captured in consuming countries based on non-material attributes and services. Less-developed countries generally do not have the technical resources or services needed to fulfil technology-intensive traceability requirements. This gap will likely be addressed by new “nature tech” companies based in rich countries. If the associated service costs are passed down the chain by traders and processors, it could put pressure on commodity prices at farmgate.
Other unintended effects
Lastly, strict regulatory approaches risk having unintended impacts on biodiversity itself when the burden of regulatory impacts is shifted to non-target interests and groups. For example, narrowly conceived trade rules on deforestation may actually benefit established monocultures and harm more biodiversity-friendly smallholders. Under EUDR, for example, this could happen if large-scale monocultures are deemed “deforestation-free” simply because the (forest) land was already cleared for commodity production before the cut-off date specified in the trade measure. As a result, demand for commodities produced in more biodiverse agroforestry systems could decline, perversely shifting the economic burdens of new “sustainability” measures onto the lives and livelihoods of numerous small producers who farm in more socio-ecologically rich systems.