Myanmar is among the world’s most vulnerable nations to climate change, facing increasing floods, droughts, cyclones, and extreme heat. These risks are intensified by ongoing conflict, displacement, weak governance, and limited institutional capacity. Vulnerable communities – especially in the Ayeyarwady Delta and the Central Dry Zone – are highly exposed due to their reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods and degraded ecosystems. There is also limited access to reliable climate information and lack of integration of projected climate risk into adaptation planning.
Bridging scientific hazard modelling with local knowledge
Myanmar critically lacks localized climate data to inform adaptation decisions. Existing global climate models feature resolution that is too coarse to capture Myanmar’s complex topography and sub-regional climate variations. There is also a significant knowledge gap that prevents bridging scientific hazard modelling with local knowledge. This gap must be addressed to ensure that adaptation strategies are evidence-based, context-specific, and actionable for local communities and civil society organizations (CSOs).
Purpose of the project
The project aims to strengthen climate resilience in vulnerable communities of Myanmar by leveraging scientific evidence to guide locally relevant adaptation actions. It builds on high-resolution, downscaled climate models created by climate scientists from two European universities in collaboration with CDE, generating actionable evidence on climate hazards and vulnerability. These insights will be translated into accessible infographics and knowledge products for development actors, CSOs, and local communities to support the planning and implementation of locally led adaptation initiatives.
What is new about the project?
This project is the first application of downscaled climate modelling tailored specifically to Myanmar, moving far beyond what global models can offer in terms of spatial resolution and local relevance. It integrates hazard simulations (flood, drought, extreme heat) with publicly available spatial datasets and socioeconomic indicators. This enables comprehensive vulnerability assessments, incorporating future climate scenarios in support of long-term planning and decision-making.
One key innovation is the project’s focus on wet-bulb temperatures, which capture the combined effects of heat and humidity and directly relate to human physiological limits. By examining wet-bulb temperature impacts on outdoor workers and vulnerable populations, the project addresses a critical but largely overlooked dimension of climate risk in Myanmar.
Project objectives and activities
To achieve the objective of enhancing climate resilience via evidence-based climate risk understanding and strengthening locally led adaptation in Myanmar, the project focuses on the following activities:
- Analyzing climate hazards (extreme heat, flood, drought) at local scales through high-resolution modelling;
- Identifying climate vulnerability hotspots to support targeted adaptation planning and prioritization of high-risk communities;
- Enhancing the accessibility and usability of climate hazard information with an integrated dashboard and targeted communication – including maps, infographics, and knowledge products;
- Strengthening the capacity of CSOs and local communities to interpret and apply climate data for effective adaptation planning and decision-making;
- Promoting locally led adaptation strategies by means of evidence-based research and a participatory approach
Methodologies
The project combines climate modelling with community-based research. It uses high-resolution data to map climate risks and combines this with local knowledge collected via workshops, interviews, focus group discussions, and participatory mapping. The results are translated into locally interpreted visual tools (maps, dashboards, briefs) to help communities and development partners understand risks and plan practical adaptation actions.
The role of CDE
CDE leads the development of actionable climate risk evidence, working with climate scientists and technical experts to generate high-resolution hazard simulations, identify vulnerability hotspots, and interpret climate data. It also supports the capacity strengthening of CSOs, development actors, and other users in accessing, understanding, and applying the data, knowledge products, and digital dashboard on behalf of locally led adaptation planning and action.
